Why It Is Inevitable That A Coalition Government Will Form After The Next General Elections
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By Alric Lindsay
The results of a recent survey by bluedot, an organization working with the Progressives political party, showed that people surveyed prefer political party candidates as MPs over independent candidates. While some voters may agree with this conclusion, it’s unlikely that any political party (existing or new) can field 19 electable candidates for the next general election or have enough elected officials to form a government. This is primarily due to changing voter perceptions of trust and credibility towards political parties and difficulties in recruiting candidates. Since no single party is likely to change voters’ perceptions and the challenges parties face in these areas will not be resolved entirely, it’s more probable that a coalition government will form after the next general election.
Impact of changing voter perceptions
Regarding changing voter perceptions, in the past three elections, two political parties faced challenges getting enough members elected, resulting in a lack of majority to form a government. This may have led to doubts about the strength of these parties.
In addition, when the two previous parties failed to form a government with their own members, their unity was perceived in some factions as an effort to cling to power rather than prioritize the people’s best interests. Some voters, therefore, viewed the unity negatively.
These changes in perceptions led to some loss of confidence in political parties, which resulted in the election of several new independent candidates to the Parliament in 2021.
However, the frequent changes in the independent-led government’s composition left voters feeling that independents needed to be more organized and work within a formal structure to maintain stability. As a result, some independents are now considering forming a party for the next election. Notwithstanding a planned restructuring, they face challenges in regaining voter trust. Ultimately, this means that only some of them may get re-elected.
Difficulties with candidate recruitment
Perceptions are important not only to voters but also to new candidates. For example, before the next general election, new candidates will look for independent individuals or political parties they can trust and find credible. However, it will likely be the case that some new candidates may refuse to work with certain parties after analysing the party structures in place before the next general election.
For all the reasons mentioned above, any existing or new party will likely face challenges in recruiting candidates and may struggle to find enough people to run in every electoral district. This makes it inevitable that no single group or political party will get sufficient numbers elected to form a majority to establish a government, resulting in the formation of yet another coalition government following the next general elections.
Note to readers:
For a coalition government to survive its term the next time around, it needs to agree on short, medium and long-term objectives and execute matters in a timely manner.
Additionally, their publicly stated policies must be consistent, i.e., they must be reading from the same hymn sheet with a goal to act in the best interests of the country and comply with the constitution.
Further, members of such a coalition government must avoid activities that may cast doubt on their reputation or credibility.
Lastly, the people should consider constitutional amendments to include a code of conduct for MPs and recall provisions to remove MPs who are not performing or performing poorly concerning policy execution or objective achievement. Without the power of the people enshrined in the constitution, it will be difficult to hold politicians accountable for their acts or omissions.
